Mercer Island Real Estate Update, Part 1

It’s time for a look at the health of the Mercer Island real estate market. Windermere said, “September 2009 Awesome for Mercer Island!“

But was it awesome? Homes were indeed selling this summer:

With the exception of two bigger sales, $4 million was about the top of the market– Mercer Island’s biggest and blingiest homes either weren’t selling or were selling for much less than normal.

Comparing 2009 (YTD) to 2008

More interesting is to look at what homes have been selling for. Here I’ve broken it down by month and neighborhood.

Some interesting findings:

• Prices down: Though it’s hard to see in the line chart, prices have declined from 2008 to 2009. On the Island as a whole, the average price per square foot dropped from $440 per square foot to $341.
• Especially in South Island: South Island houses saw the biggest decline, from $485 per quare foot to $323 per square foot.
• Lower offers: As you might expect with these drops, owners were getting less than they listed their houses for. Average sale-to-original-list price dropped from 91% Island-wide to 87%. This means that in 2008, when an owner put a house for sale, the ultimate price would be on average 91% of the list price (excluding any price drops), but in 2009 the ultimate price would be only 87% on average.
• Volume down: 262 homes sold in 2008 and 176 have sold year-to-date in 2009, with about two months to go.
• More condos: Already 41 condos have sold on the Island vs. 27 last year, probably due to the new developments in the business district.

Methodology & sources: I downloaded the last two years of home sale records from Redfin and did a bit of analysis with them with Tableau Software. Areas are somewhat arbitrarily designated as North Island (north of SE 40th St), Mid Island (north of SE 60th St), and South Island (south of SE 60th St). And by the way, I’m not affiliated with any real estate organization, just a homeowner.

In part 2 we’ll look at listings: homes currently for sale on the Island.

30.5% of Mercer Island Votes Counted and…

Update: As of the evening of Nov 4, about 38% of Mercer Island ballots have been returned and counted and these results hold.

Dan Grausz is winning for City Council seat #2 with 56% of votes

Dave Myerson is winning for MISD Director Position #2 in a close race with about 52% of votes

I’ll let the Seattle Times update you on county & state elections:

From the Mailbox, and VOTE

Some interesting news from the mail. First, a Halloween update:

There were pumpkins. Photo: Armadilo60 on Flickr.

New MISD Blog

Don’t know how new this is, but it’s new to me: MISD has a blog called Spotlight on MISD. Nice blog, and a great way get to know district teachers and staff.

New Japanese Place in North Island

Thanks to Dave for this tip: “A new restaurant just opened up where the “Lil Tokyo” used to be, next to Alpenland. The new place is also Japanese, but higher class than the teriyaki joint that was there before. It’s either incredibly brave or crazy to open a restaurant in this economy. Since islanders universally ask for more restaurants, it would be nice to support this new addition to our community. We stumbled upon it Monday, the day it opened, and our dinners were great!

Island Kids Onstage with the Nutcracker

The Pacific Northwest Ballet writes to say that six Island kids are performing in the Nutcracker this year. Congratulations to Jessica Li, Devon Munoz, Ana Ko Glass, Elisabeth Malanga, Jenna Permut, and Stevie Reiff. The show runs from November 27 to December 30– see the schedule for times & tickets.

Pacific Northwest Ballet School students and Company dancers in the Kent Stowell/Maurice Sendak Nutcracker. Photo © Angela Sterling.

Don’t Forget to Vote

According to King County, about 26% of Mercer Island has voted already. For the other 74%, here’s a reminder to mail your ballots today or tomorrow. If you need a cheat sheet on local races, check out

• Mercer Island City Council race
• King County Exec race
• King County Assessor race
• Mercer Island School Board race

And there are two important initiatives on the ballot:

1. Crazy Time Eyman’s “let’s make Washington broker than California” Initiative 1033, which most sane people are voting against, and
2. R-71, which entitles same-sex couple to the same benefits (but not the actual institution of “marriage”) as married heterosexual couples, which most feeling people are voting for.

Halloween on Mercer Island

There’s lots of Halloween spirit this year. Check out the ghouls:

If you’re a witch who can’t fly straight, this scary skull WILL laugh at you.

That’s a BIG spider.

Soup, anyone?

Reduce, recycle, reuse- convert your lawn to a graveyard.

Mercer Island’s Haunted Forest

Finally, the Seattle Times has a video on Youth Theater Northwest’s Haunted Forest in Island Crest Park:

Click into the site to play to video.

Mercer Island School Board Election

There are two seats up for election on Nov. 3 for the Mercer Island School Board. Adair Dingle is running unopposed for one; the other is contested by Terri Caditz and Dave Myerson.

Caditz, Myerson, and an artifact of the responsibility they seek. “For Rent” is just a sign of the times.

These two are not short on credentials. They have five degrees between the two of them. They also both endorse the MISD’s 2020 Vision.

Now onto the differences:

Experience

• Caditz has served as President of the PTA and has volunteered at the school district for 14 years. She’s a lawyer.
• Myerson has been actively involved in the MISD math curriculum. He’s a scientist and physician.

Positions

• Caditz believes in a hands-off approach to curriculum: hire the right administrators and let them administer.
• Myerson, as you might expect from someone apparently known as the “Math Guy,” is much more hands-on. He promises, “I propose to be a Board member who can, and will assess the action, not just supply a pro-forma vote confirming that procedure was followed.“

Endorsements

• Caditz is endorsed by the Mercer Island Education Association.
• Myerson is endorsed by Mike Cero and the 41st District Democrats.

Bedtime reading

• Interview with Caditz in the MI Reporter.
• Myerson’s website.

No endorsement here, just trying to figure out what these two are about. Though I’d be interested to read comments from anyone who’s been involved in the MISD or PTA over the last few years. Just type in the form below…

Experience:

• Caditz has served as President of the PTA and has volunteered at the school district for 14 years.
• Myerson has been actively involved in the math curriculum– in fact, he’s known as the “math guy.”

Around the Lake: Restaurants, Elections & Books

Updates from the great nearby. From the West:

Capitol Hill Seattle provides a great summary of the rumors surrounding Elliott Bay Book’s possible move to Capitol Hill from Pioneer square.

The Rainier Valley Post has a heads-up on the Seattle Bookfest is this weekend in Columbia City. There will be author readings, a Childrens’  Stage, and panels and workshops. Looks like literary hilarity. Saturday & Sunday, 10 am to 6 pm.

Publicola’s election picks are out. Here’s the cheat sheet. They’ve got good analysis, so click in to read more if you’re interested. Headlines: they like Dow Constantine for King County Exec, Rosenberger for Assessor, and McGinn for (Seattle) mayor.

From the East:

Kirkland Weblog reports on the “bin on the lake,” which took over space from the now-defunct Yarrow Bay Grill.

Downtown Bellevue Network, who is hipper than we are, reports on three trendy new restaurants opening in Bellevue: Purple Cafe, Trophy Cupcakes, and earl’s.

And in all-over news, the Seattle Times writes that King Co. Exec Candidate Susan Hutchinson now supports Light Rail over 520, not I-90, proving yet again that the Puget Sound region is not one short on proposals for transportation. Short on actual transportation we may be, but we’re not short on proposals. East Link Light Rail over I-90 is baked though it will still take years to implement. So let’s stop reworking proposals in the middle of construction, and get us some transportation.

Let’s just build it, already.

King County Assessor and More on ICW

Before we get into the Assessor’s race, an update on the most contested race on the Island this election year: the race for City Council Position #2. No fewer than 6 former Mercer Island mayors (including Fred “loved by all” Jarrett) sent a letter endorsing Grausz as a good guy on the Council and Ira as a rabble-rouser who uses scare tactics.

Meanwhile, Ira has expanded his single-issue “No Road Diet” campaign to include opposition to any tolling on I-90. And he sent a letter too.

And Now, Assessing the Assessor

The King County Assessor race probably falls into the less interesting of the ballot items this November, but it’s important to homeowners. The Assessor is the one whose office tells you how much your property is worth in the eyes of the county and therefore, how much you’ll pay in taxes. This is an off-schedule election due to recent turmoil in the Assessor’s office.

I’ve narrowed down the candidates based on the Seattle Municipal League’s ratings because, frankly, it’s Sunday night and I’m tired. So here are the 3 rated “Good” or “Very Good” by the League:

• Lloyd Hara, Seattle Port Commissioner, who’s running on his management experience
• Bob Rosenberger, Retired Deputy Assessor who’s running on his experience as an Assessor and as part of the Assessor’s office
• Graham Albertini, Appraiser and teacher of Appraisers

All have some kind of fairness or current value language in their platforms, referring to assessing real values instead of the real estate peak. Rosenberger also talks about “reducing exemptions” that shift the burden to normal taxpayers. Based on the candidates’ statements and their experience, I’ll vote for Rosenberger though Lloyd Hara would probably be a good Assessor as well.

Aside: What the Assessor’s Taxes Pay For

The Assessor’s race is also important to anyone with kids in the local schools, because it was a fall in tax revenues that caused $2.4 million in cuts to Mercer Island schools this year. The Mercer Island Schools Foundation helped to partly address with $1 million in fundraising, about half of which went directly to saving 5.4 teaching positions. The organization doing a phone-a-thon Oct. 26th and 27th, so expect to hear from them.

What Should Go in the New Retail Space on North Island?

The construction on North Island is finally finishing up, opening up some new retail space.

Which begs the question: what should go in there? My top ideas are

• An independent bakery and coffee shop
• A Trader Joe’s, though I suspect Mercer Island is too small for it
• A killer dessert place. Could be a new ice cream place now that Maggie Moo’s is gone, or cupcakes, or just desserts.
• A great Indian place.

What we have so far is a new bank:

Useful but not high on the exiting-meter.

Leave a comment– what stores do you want to see in North Island?

Bonus Link: MIHS Can Write

Mercer Island resident Hannah Wood has just been selected as one of two new Youth Writers-in-Residence at Seattle’s Hugo House. If you’re not familiar with it, Hugo House is a well-respected center supporting writing and the literary arts. It’s a big honor to be named a writer-in-residence. Congratulations Hannah!

Mercer Island Bulletin Board: It’s Election Time

Fall’s here, and so is election season, according to the Mercer Island Bulletin Board at Island Crest Way and 40th:

If the signs on the road aren’t providing enough color, check out the blog’s election coverage or the debate coming up this Wednesday:

And finally, in non-election related news, the city is offering a free bike-commuting class for the winter months:

“Winterize Your Bike Commute” brought to you by Mercer Island Parks and Recreation Department in partnership with Cascade Bicycle Club.

• Date: October 14th
• Time: 6:30-8:30pm
• Location: Community Center at Mercer View
• Cost: Free to public, pre-registration required
• More info:

UPDATE: News from the city

• Fall Recycling Collection Event: 10/24. Recycle motor oil, old tires, dead batteries and other yucky  things. More info.
• Tent City Community Meeting: 10/22. Discuss “lessons learned” from Tent City. More info.

Fred Jarrett Loved By All: the King County Executive Race

Susan Hutchinson says she’ll hire him. Dow Constantine invites him to campaign events. Fred Jarrett’s no longer in the race for King County Exec, but he’s an important player.

Dow, Susan, and Not in Race.

Jarrett had a good platform back in the primary, but Constantine and Hutchinson won it. Going back to the research I did at that time, Constantine seems like more of a solid candidate with experience to get things done in a county that sometimes has trouble getting things done. I still have trouble getting comfortable with Susan Hutchinson’s record which is mostly as a TV anchor.

What’s new? Well, both oppose the latest crazy ballot initiative from crazy initiative-maker Tim Eyman. Publicola covers a press release that calls out past remarks by Susan Hutchinson to say that she’s much more conservative than she lets on. If you want to see more, this Monday the two candidates will face off in a debate on environmental issues sponsored by King County Green Choice.

Last week we looked at  the Mercer Island City Council Election. We’ll take a look at the School Board race and key initiatives as well before this election season is over.